BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
61-68 · +4 NL EAST · L1 · 3-7 L10
@FRI 7:10 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
64-64 · +3 NL EAST · L3 · 5-5 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
84°F · 3mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Brad Lord
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
4.04
IP
62.1
K/9
8.2
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS10.91 ERA · 14.6% K · 17.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
23%
21%
14%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSliderSweeperChangeup
Ryan Gusto
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+94
ERA
4.70
IP
53.2
K/9
8.2
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS4.84 ERA · 22.2% K · 4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
19%
14%
13%
12%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCutterSweeperSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMarlins 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH MIA

Game Markets

WSH @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

35%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.82 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.45, MIA 4.37
  • Brad Lord (WSH) vs Ryan Gusto (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BL

Brad Lord

WSH SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against MIA
RG

Ryan Gusto

MIA SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRAD LORD SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.7%OPS-against.502
vs Left-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.827
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.736K%21.3%

RYAN GUSTO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.746
vs Left-handedK%18.1%OPS-against.758
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.749K%20.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs BRAD LORD

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs RYAN GUSTO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·MIA 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 4·MIA 8
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%WSH
WSH 194 · MIA 155 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-03MIA 4-1
2026-06-02MIA 7-3
2026-06-01MIA 7-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-17 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

MIA OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-17 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT84° · 3mph out to CF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
84°F
Wind3 mph out to CF
Humidity79%
Rain8%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO