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AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

STL vs PHI

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies

Friday, August 21, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the STL @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ST. LOUISSTL
0·0
PHILADELPHIAPHI
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

STL DUGOUTPHI DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

JJ Wetherholt (L) vs HP

FB95.3
CV76.2
FB95.4
CT88.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

JJ Wetherholt in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JJ WETHERHOLT

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

74%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJJ Wetherholt at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 84 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI
LINEUP EDGEPHI

STL STARTER

Hunter Dobbins

AVERAGE
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 17% whiffSlider · 17% · 22% whiffSweeper · 15% · 24% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

PHI STARTER

Jesús Luzardo

AVERAGE
8.6
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 38% · 49% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 25% · 17% whiffChangeup · 19% · 38% whiff

Jesús Luzardo projects 8.6 Ks vs Hunter Dobbins projects 4.8 Ks

STL LINEUP

  1. 1JJ Wetherholt (L)hit 55% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Iván Herrera (R)hit 57% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jordan Walker (R)hit 61% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Joshua Báez (R)hit 51% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Blaze Jordan (R)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6José Fermín (R)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Everson Pereira (R)hit 49% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Bryan Torres (L)hit 49% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Pedro Pagés (R)hit 39% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    39%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    16%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    18%

    SCORES A RUN

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 67% · HR 31%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 67% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 72% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 70% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 64% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryson Stott (L)hit 64% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 65% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 57% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Justin Crawford (L)hit 60% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

STL PHI

Game Markets

STL @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

74%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

62%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

56%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

24%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore STL by 2.26 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 2.98, PHI 5.24
  • Hunter Dobbins (STL) vs Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
HD

Hunter Dobbins

STL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

90%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

82%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

71%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against PHI
JL

Jesús Luzardo

PHI SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

97%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

91%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

51%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

97%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.6 strikeouts
  • 97% to reach 5+ against STL
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Hunter Dobbins
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hunter Dobbins
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Hunter Dobbins
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Dobbins
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Hunter Dobbins
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 36% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hunter Dobbins
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 33% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hunter Dobbins
EP

Everson Pereira

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Hunter Dobbins
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hunter Dobbins
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
JW

JJ Wetherholt

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
BJ

Blaze Jordan

STL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
JB

Joshua Báez

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
BT

Bryan Torres

STL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo
PP

Pedro Pagés

STL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

41%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

17%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 41% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jesús Luzardo

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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