MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS
BOS2 · spread
BOS side — model edge vs the line
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
SF @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
SF to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
52%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
34%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
45%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.19 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
SF SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
91%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
53%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
BOS SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
81%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
32%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
Doubles factory (Green Monster).
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.