MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Sean Burke · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYM @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
CWS to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
54%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
39%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
CWS projects to outscore NYM by 0.46 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYM SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
12%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
99%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
83%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
72%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.
CWS SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
66%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
30%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
Slight HR boost.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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