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AI MODEL READ

PRE-LINEUP

CIN vs AZ

Cincinnati Reds at AZ

Friday, August 21, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CIN @ AZ simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CINCINNATICIN
0·0
ARIZONAARI
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

CIN DUGOUTAZ DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV77.9
FB94.9
FB94.6
FB94.8
CH84.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

AZ to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

AZ -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL AZ

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

AZ wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

CIN Over 4.5 runs

42%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 10-for-34 (.294) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career

II · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.