BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCHC
74-54 · +2 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 6-4 L10
@FRI 10:10 PM ETSEA HOME PARK
60-68 · +3 AL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
SEATTLESEA
Weather
82°F · 3mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Matthew Boyd
LHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
4.02
IP
85.0
K/9
7.2
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.24
L5 STARTS3.90 ERA · 12.4% K · 8.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
50%
27%
14%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSlider
Emerson Hancock
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.30
IP
128.0
K/9
8.4
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS3.83 ERA · 19.8% K · 5.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
24%
18%
12%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSweeperCutterChangeupCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 61%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CHC SEA

Game Markets

CHC @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

43%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore CHC by 0.93 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 3.76, SEA 4.69
  • Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs Emerson Hancock (SEA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MB

Matthew Boyd

CHC SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against SEA
EH

Emerson Hancock

SEA SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

49%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against CHC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MATTHEW BOYD SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.771
vs Left-handedK%19.8%OPS-against.583
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.705K%22.5%

EMERSON HANCOCK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.636
vs Left-handedK%24.1%OPS-against.667
CHC vs LHP (team)OPS.806K%21.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SEA BATTERS vs MATTHEW BOYD

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs EMERSON HANCOCK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 0·SEA 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 2·SEA 0
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
61%CHC
CHC 33 · SEA 21 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-22CHC 7-1 · Blowout
2026-03-12CHC 7-4
2025-06-22SEA 14-6 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.319L15 team wOBA
+3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

SEA OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 3mph out to RF
T-MOBILE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Notorious pitcher park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind3 mph out to RF
Humidity41%
Rain3%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO