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ATH
49-79 · +5 AL WEST · L4 · 2-8 L10
@FRI 8:10 PM ETHOU HOME PARK
64-64 · +1 AL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
92°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
J.T. Ginn
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
3.53
IP
127.1
K/9
8.1
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.22
L5 STARTS5.11 ERA · 23% K · 8.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
19%
19%
16%
12%
SinkerChangeupCutterSlider4-Seam Fastball
Hayden Wesneski
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
5.16
IP
22.2
K/9
7.2
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS5.27 ERA · 18.9% K · 7.4% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH HOU

Game Markets

ATH @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

39%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore ATH by 0.42 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATH 4.04, HOU 4.46
  • J.T. Ginn (ATH) vs Hayden Wesneski (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JG

J.T. Ginn

ATH SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 56% to reach 5+ against HOU
HW

Hayden Wesneski

HOU SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

22%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

J.T. GINN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.5%OPS-against.554
vs Left-handedK%19.3%OPS-against.723
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.735K%21.8%

HAYDEN WESNESKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.1%OPS-against.814
vs Left-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.717
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.721K%21.2%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs J.T. GINN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs HAYDEN WESNESKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 0·HOU 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATH 3·HOU 3
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
92%HOU
ATH 11 · HOU 127 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-07ATH 5-0
2026-06-06HOU 13-2 · Blowout
2026-06-06HOU 5-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

HOU OFFENSE

.274L15 team wOBA
-42 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT92° · 8mph out to CF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
92°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity57%
Rain2%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO