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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

WSH vs TEX

Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers

Thursday, August 20, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH
0·0
TEXASTEX
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

WSH DUGOUTTEX DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.1
CV76.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

WSH Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TEX to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TEX -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TEX

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TEX wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYWSH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Washington vs Texas Winner?

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETEX
LINEUP EDGETEX

WSH STARTER

Andrew Alvarez

AVERAGE
5.4
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Curveball · 30% · 33% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 13% whiffSlider · 23% · 36% whiff

TEX STARTER

Jacob deGrom

AVERAGE
6.2
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 42% · 25% whiffSlider · 36% · 40% whiffChangeup · 13% · 43% whiff

Jacob deGrom projects 6.2 Ks vs Andrew Alvarez projects 5.4 Ks

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1Daylen Lile (L)hit 58% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Abimelec Ortiz (L)hit 55% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Andrés Chaparro (R)hit 60% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4José Tena (L)hit 52% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brady House (R)hit 50% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 57% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Dylan Crews (R)hit 48% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 44% · HR 3%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    16%

    2+ BASES

    7%

    3+ BASES

    4%

    4+ BASES

    12%

    RBI

    3%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Andrew Pinckney (R)hit 48% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

TEX LINEUP

  1. 1Wyatt Langford (R)hit 68% · HR 19%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Corey Seager (L)hit 68% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jake Burger (R)hit 67% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 69% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 60% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Justin Foscue (R)hit 61% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Danny Jansenhit 48% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cody Freeman (R)hit 55% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Evan Carter (L)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH TEX

Game Markets

WSH @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

68%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

59%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

49%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

26%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore WSH by 1.55 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 3.15, TEX 4.69
  • Andrew Alvarez (WSH) vs Jacob deGrom (TEX)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
AA

Andrew Alvarez

WSH SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

42%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against TEX
JD

Jacob deGrom

TEX SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

44%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

25%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

14%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
  • 79% to reach 5+ against WSH
JB

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
AC

Andrés Chaparro

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jacob deGrom
CS

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
JF

Justin Foscue

TEX · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
AO

Abimelec Ortiz

WSH · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jacob deGrom
DL

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Jacob deGrom
KR

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Jacob deGrom
CF

Cody Freeman

TEX · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
JT

José Tena

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jacob deGrom
BH

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Jacob deGrom
DJ

Danny Jansen

TEX · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ RBIs at 9% against 10%.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob deGrom
AP

Andrew Pinckney

WSH · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Jacob deGrom
EC

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Alvarez
NN

Nasim Nuñez

WSH · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

17%

Total Bases

3+ bases

7%

Total Bases

4+ bases

4%

RBIs

1+ RBI

13%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

3%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob deGrom

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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