TORONTOTOR
62-66 · +4 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@THU 1:10 PM ETTB HOME PARK
76-50 · +1 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
TAMPA BAYTB
Weather
90°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Shane Bieber
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
4.99
IP
48.2
K/9
6.8
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.56
L5 STARTS4.58 ERA · 16.5% K · 11% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
40%
20%
16%
14%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballCutter
Ian Seymour
LHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.11
IP
96.1
K/9
10.7
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.13
L5 STARTS2.55 ERA · 31% K · 4.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
25%
24%
14%
ChangeupSweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerSlider
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 61%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR TB

Game Markets

TOR @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

56%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

TB -1.5

43%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore TOR by 0.92 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 3.56, TB 4.47
  • Shane Bieber (TOR) vs Ian Seymour (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SB

Shane Bieber

TOR SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

57%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against TB
IS

Ian Seymour

TB SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

35%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

80%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.7 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SHANE BIEBER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%17.7%OPS-against.886
vs Left-handedK%16.5%OPS-against.782
TB vs LHP (team)OPS.684K%18.5%

IAN SEYMOUR SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.7%OPS-against.622
vs Left-handedK%29.0%OPS-against.825
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.703K%19.0%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

TB BATTERS vs SHANE BIEBER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs IAN SEYMOUR

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 1·TB 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 4·TB 10
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%TB
TOR 139 · TB 196 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-19TB 7-6 · One-run game
2026-08-18TOR 10-5 · Slugfest
2026-07-23TOR 3-1
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TB OFFENSE

.350L15 team wOBA
+34 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
ENVIRONMENT90° · 5mph out to RF
STEINBRENNER FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Interim park post-Tropicana damage.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
90°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity61%
Rain20%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO