SAN FRANCISCOSF
52-74 · +4 NL WEST · W1 · 3-7 L10
@THU 1:10 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
61-66 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
78°F · 5mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Landen Roupp
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
4.31
IP
129.1
K/9
8.9
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS6.08 ERA · 19.5% K · 13.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
26%
20%
14%
SinkerCurveballChangeupCutter4-Seam Fastball
Gavin Williams
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
3.74
IP
149.0
K/9
11.5
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.08
L5 STARTS2.84 ERA · 40.2% K · 7.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
23%
22%
20%
10%
SweeperCurveball4-Seam FastballSinkerCutter
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 60%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SF CLE

Game Markets

SF @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

42%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

31%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore SF by 0.69 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SF 3.51, CLE 4.20
  • Landen Roupp (SF) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LR

Landen Roupp

SF SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against CLE
GW

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

94%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

41%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

50%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.1 strikeouts
  • 94% to reach 5+ against SF

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

LANDEN ROUPP SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.680
vs Left-handedK%22.7%OPS-against.662
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.686K%21.6%

GAVIN WILLIAMS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.737
vs Left-handedK%32.9%OPS-against.616
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.731K%20.3%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs LANDEN ROUPP

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SF BATTERS vs GAVIN WILLIAMS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SF 1·CLE 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SF 3·CLE 1
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
61%SF
SF 35 · CLE 22 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-19SF 1-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-18CLE 8-1 · Blowout
2026-03-21SF 10-7 · Slugfest
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

SF OFFENSE

.267L15 team wOBA
-49 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CLE OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT78° · 5mph in from CF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
78°F
Wind5 mph in from CF
Humidity64%
Rain8%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO