MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Kyle Bradish · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts
Kyle Bradish · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks
engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts
Jazz Chisholm Jr. · Over 0.5 1+ HR
engine edge vs Kalshi batter home runs
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYY @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
46%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
50%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
34%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.46 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
NYY SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
77%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
BAL SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
39%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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