AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDLAA vs HOU
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
Thursday, August 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the LAA @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
LAA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
LAA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LAA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
HOU to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
HOU -1.5
TEAM TOTAL HOU
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
HOU wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDLos Angeles A vs Houston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
LAA STARTER
Grayson Rodriguez
SHAKY- 3.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
HOU STARTER
Peter Lambert
AVERAGE- 4.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Peter Lambert projects 4.9 Ks vs Grayson Rodriguez projects 3.8 Ks
LAA LINEUP
1Wade Meckler (L)hit 61% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
2Mike Trout (R)hit 58% · HR 17%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Nolan Schanuel (L)hit 61% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
4Zach Neto (R)hit 53% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5Moisés Ballesteros (L)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
6Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 53% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
7Josh Lowe (L)hit 50% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Tyler Heineman (S)hit 47% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
9Adam Frazier (L)hit 47% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
HOU LINEUP
1LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)hit 61% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 77% · HR 38%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
77%
1+ HIT
43%
2+ HITS
38%
HOME RUN
60%
2+ BASES
47%
3+ BASES
40%
4+ BASES
50%
RBI
25%
2+ RBIs
60%
SCORES A RUN
3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 61% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
4Jose Altuve (R)hit 62% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
5Daulton Varsho (L)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
6Taylor Trammell (L)hit 57% · HR 17%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
7Cam Smith (R)hit 61% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
8Nick Allen (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Christian Vázquez (R)hit 49% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
LAA @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
67%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
56%
Game Total
Over 8.5
43%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
49%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
28%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
49%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore LAA by 1.56 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: LAA 3.30, HOU 4.86
- Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) vs Peter Lambert (HOU)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Grayson Rodriguez
LAA SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
40%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
13%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
46%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
- 34% to reach 5+ against HOU
Peter Lambert
HOU SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
67%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
40%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
25%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 57% to reach 5+ against LAA
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
38%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
43%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grayson Rodriguez
Cam Smith
HOU · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Grayson Rodriguez
Mike Trout
LAA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Peter Lambert
Taylor Trammell
HOU · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grayson Rodriguez
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Grayson Rodriguez
Nolan Schanuel
LAA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Peter Lambert
Wade Meckler
LAA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Peter Lambert
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Grayson Rodriguez
Zach Neto
LAA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Peter Lambert
LaMonte Wade Jr.
HOU · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Grayson Rodriguez
Daulton Varsho
HOU · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grayson Rodriguez
Josh Lowe
LAA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 52%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Peter Lambert
Vaughn Grissom
LAA · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Peter Lambert
Moisés Ballesteros
LAA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 27%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Peter Lambert
Nick Allen
HOU · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grayson Rodriguez
Christian Vázquez
HOU · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grayson Rodriguez
Adam Frazier
LAA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 59%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Peter Lambert
Tyler Heineman
LAA · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 59%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Peter Lambert
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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