BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATLANTAATL
74-53 · +1 NL EAST · L3 · 4-6 L10
@THU 2:10 PM ETCWS HOME PARK
66-60 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
CHICAGOCWS
Weather
74°F · 10mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
1-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Grant Holmes
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
3.82
IP
117.2
K/9
7.4
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS4.43 ERA · 17.8% K · 9.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
32%
10%
8%
Slider4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballCutterChangeup
Anthony Kay
LHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.01
IP
121.1
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS3.30 ERA · 18.5% K · 5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
24%
23%
18%
17%
14%
4-Seam FastballSweeperSinkerCutterChangeupSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL CWS

Game Markets

ATL @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

30%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore CWS by 0.70 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 4.97, CWS 4.27
  • Grant Holmes (ATL) vs Anthony Kay (CWS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GH

Grant Holmes

ATL SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against CWS
AK

Anthony Kay

CWS SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GRANT HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.1%OPS-against.744
vs Left-handedK%19.1%OPS-against.731
CWS vs LHP (team)OPS.731K%24.6%

ANTHONY KAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%14.9%OPS-against.842
vs Left-handedK%26.9%OPS-against.539
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.731K%22.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CWS BATTERS vs GRANT HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs ANTHONY KAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·CWS 0
1-game set · gm 1 of 1
2026 SEASON
ATL 0·CWS 3
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
63%CWS
ATL 10 · CWS 17 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-11CWS 0-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-06-10CWS 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-06-09CWS 6-5 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.285L15 team wOBA
-31 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CWS OFFENSE

.337L15 team wOBA
+21 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT74° · 10mph in from CF
RATE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
74°F
Wind10 mph in from CF
Humidity64%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO