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ATH
49-78 · +5 AL WEST · L3 · 3-7 L10
@THU 2:10 PM ETKC HOME PARK
54-74 · +5 AL CENTRAL · W4 · 5-5 L10
KANSAS CITYKC
Weather
79°F · 3mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-3 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Gage Jump
LHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
4.50
IP
78.0
K/9
9.8
BB/9
4.3
WHIP
1.45
L5 STARTS6.24 ERA · 24.8% K · 17.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
49%
25%
12%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballSweeper
Randy Dobnak
RHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
1.73
IP
41.2
K/9
5.4
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS1.65 ERA · 15.8% K · 7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETATH 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH KC

Game Markets

ATH @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATH to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

KC -1.5

33%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

ATH projects to outscore KC by 0.46 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATH 4.97, KC 4.51
  • Gage Jump (ATH) vs Randy Dobnak (KC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GJ

Gage Jump

ATH SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

51%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 56% to reach 5+ against KC
RD

Randy Dobnak

KC SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

74%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GAGE JUMP SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.7%OPS-against.764
vs Left-handedK%23.6%OPS-against.699
KC vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%20.9%

RANDY DOBNAK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%16.2%OPS-against.726
vs Left-handedK%13.0%OPS-against.576
ATH vs LHP (team)OPS.715K%24.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs GAGE JUMP

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs RANDY DOBNAK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 0·KC 3
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
ATH 3·KC 5
8 played · 11 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
90%KC
ATH 8 · KC 69 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-19KC 9-7 · Slugfest
2026-08-18KC 4-3 · One-run game
2026-08-17KC 9-5
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.301L15 team wOBA
-15 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

KC OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT79° · 3mph in from CF
KAUFFMAN STADIUM
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind3 mph in from CF
Humidity70%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO