MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Chase Burns · Over 7.5 8+ Ks
engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
STL @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
52%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
41%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
40%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
48%
THE READ
CIN projects to outscore STL by 0.60 runs across 5,000 trials.
STL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
57%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
14%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
CIN SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
92%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
83%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
36%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
53%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
League’s hottest HR park.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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