BETFLYAISIGN IN
SEATTLESEA
59-67 · +3 AL WEST · L1 · 3-7 L10
@WED 7:40 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
78-48 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W3 · 6-4 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
74°F · 7mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Logan Gilbert
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.28
IP
145.1
K/9
9.4
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
0.99
L5 STARTS3.26 ERA · 27% K · 7.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
23%
14%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderSplit-FingerCurveballChangeupCutter
Dustin May
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
4.13
IP
122.0
K/9
8.6
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS2.79 ERA · 23.7% K · 10.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
22%
19%
18%
4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperSinkerChangeupCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SEA MIL

Game Markets

SEA @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

29%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore MIL by 0.46 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SEA 4.18, MIL 3.71
  • Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs Dustin May (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LG

Logan Gilbert

SEA SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

36%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

97%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.8 strikeouts
  • 93% to reach 5+ against MIL
DM

Dustin May

MIL SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against SEA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LOGAN GILBERT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.6%OPS-against.678
vs Left-handedK%31.1%OPS-against.622
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.748K%21.4%

DUSTIN MAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.585
vs Left-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.750
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.705K%22.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs LOGAN GILBERT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SEA BATTERS vs DUSTIN MAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SEA 0·MIL 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
SEA 1·MIL 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%SEA
SEA 29 · MIL 26 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-18MIL 22-0 · Blowout
2026-03-18SEA 7-3
2026-03-08MIL 6-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

SEA OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIL OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT74° · 7mph in from CF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
74°F
Wind7 mph in from CF
Humidity60%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO