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NEW YORKNYY
70-55 · +2 AL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
@WED 6:35 PM ETBAL HOME PARK
61-65 · +5 AL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
BALTIMOREBAL
Weather
89°F · 6mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Will Warren
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
4.42
IP
118.0
K/9
8.9
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.41
L5 STARTS6.81 ERA · 23.9% K · 9.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
28%
20%
11%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSweeperChangeupCurveball
Chris Bassitt
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
5.11
IP
61.2
K/9
5.8
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.62
L5 STARTS5.04 ERA · 13.2% K · 6.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
23%
22%
SinkerCurveballCutterSweeper4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY BAL

Game Markets

NYY @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

34%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.97 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.61, BAL 4.37
  • Will Warren (NYY) vs Chris Bassitt (BAL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
WW

Will Warren

NYY SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

32%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against BAL
CB

Chris Bassitt

BAL SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

WILL WARREN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.0%OPS-against.770
vs Left-handedK%19.3%OPS-against.806
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.717K%23.7%

CHRIS BASSITT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%15.5%OPS-against.639
vs Left-handedK%13.1%OPS-against.926
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%24.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BAL BATTERS vs WILL WARREN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs CHRIS BASSITT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 1·BAL 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYY 8·BAL 4
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%NYY
NYY 193 · BAL 155 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-18NYY 3-1
2026-05-13BAL 7-0 · Blowout
2026-05-12NYY 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.280L15 team wOBA
-36 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

BAL OFFENSE

.321L15 team wOBA
+5 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT89° · 6mph out to RF
CAMDEN YARDS
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor0.99 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
89°F
Wind6 mph out to RF
Humidity35%
Rain2%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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