BETFLYAISIGN IN
MIAMIMIA
64-63 · +3 NL EAST · L2 · 6-4 L10
@WED 6:05 PM ETPHI HOME PARK
69-58 · +2 NL EAST · W5 · 7-3 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
87°F · 8mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sandy Alcantara
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.43
IP
170.2
K/9
6.9
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS1.59 ERA · 17.2% K · 6.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
22%
19%
14%
8%
SinkerChangeup4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperSliderCurveball
Aaron Nola
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
5.33
IP
130.0
K/9
9.6
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.45
L5 STARTS4.11 ERA · 26.1% K · 9.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
21%
13%
Curveball4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeupCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA PHI

Game Markets

MIA @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

44%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore MIA by 0.98 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.13, PHI 5.11
  • Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SA

Sandy Alcantara

MIA SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

91%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

82%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

72%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against PHI
AN

Aaron Nola

PHI SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

32%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 74% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SANDY ALCANTARA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.2%OPS-against.645
vs Left-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.668
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.720K%22.3%

AARON NOLA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.3%OPS-against.827
vs Left-handedK%22.5%OPS-against.859
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.739K%21.2%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs SANDY ALCANTARA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs AARON NOLA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 0·PHI 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIA 6·PHI 8
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%PHI
MIA 119 · PHI 173 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-18PHI 6-4
2026-08-17PHI 6-5 · One-run game
2026-07-29MIA 8-6
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

PHI OFFENSE

.337L15 team wOBA
+21 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT87° · 8mph out to RF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind8 mph out to RF
Humidity38%
Rain2%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO