BETFLYAISIGN IN
DETROITDET
61-65 · +4 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
@WED 12:35 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
62-66 · +4 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
78°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jackson Jobe
RHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
6.23
IP
8.2
K/9
8.3
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.38
L5 STARTS6.59 ERA · 20.5% K · 5.1% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Paul Skenes
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.88
IP
134.2
K/9
11.1
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS5.17 ERA · 31.9% K · 11.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
16%
16%
11%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeperSplit-FingerSinkerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

DET PIT

Game Markets

DET @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

35%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.00 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: DET 3.95, PIT 4.06
  • Jackson Jobe (DET) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JJ

Jackson Jobe

DET SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

20%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
  • 11% to reach 5+ against PIT
PS

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

51%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

17%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 75% to reach 5+ against DET

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JACKSON JOBE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.7%OPS-against.750
vs Left-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.979
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.764K%23.5%

PAUL SKENES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%32.1%OPS-against.689
vs Left-handedK%28.6%OPS-against.649
DET vs RHP (team)OPS.738K%22.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs JACKSON JOBE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs PAUL SKENES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
DET 1·PIT 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
DET 1·PIT 4
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%DET
DET 62 · PIT 57 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-18PIT 4-1
2026-08-17DET 8-5
2026-03-18PIT 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

PIT OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT78° · 8mph out to CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
78°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity60%
Rain1%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO