BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATLANTAATL
74-52 · +1 NL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
@WED 1:40 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
62-65 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 4-6 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
77°F · 1mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
AJ Smith-Shawver
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
4.15
IP
4.1
K/9
8.3
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.38
L5 STARTS4.39 ERA · 21.1% K · 10.5% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Taj Bradley
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.98
IP
135.2
K/9
10.0
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS4.50 ERA · 22% K · 13% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
47%
24%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballCutterSplit-FingerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTwins 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL MIN

Game Markets

ATL @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

34%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.04 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ATL 4.07, MIN 3.96
  • AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) vs Taj Bradley (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AS

AJ Smith-Shawver

ATL SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

32%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against MIN
TB

Taj Bradley

MIN SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

43%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
  • 76% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

AJ SMITH-SHAWVER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%33.3%OPS-against.733
vs Left-handedK%15.4%OPS-against.581
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.740K%21.1%

TAJ BRADLEY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.1%OPS-against.668
vs Left-handedK%27.5%OPS-against.708
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.733K%21.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs AJ SMITH-SHAWVER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs TAJ BRADLEY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·MIN 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATL 2·MIN 5
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
68%ATL
ATL 40 · MIN 19 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-18MIN 4-1
2026-08-17MIN 4-2
2026-03-22MIN 7-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIN OFFENSE

.322L15 team wOBA
+6 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT77° · 1mph out to CF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind1 mph out to CF
Humidity35%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO