ARIZONAARI
@2026-08-19BOS HOME PARK
68-58 · +3 AL EAST · W2 · 4-6 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
83°F · 8mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 60%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ARI BOS

Game Markets

ARI @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

42%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore ARI by 0.75 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ARI 4.04, BOS 4.79
  • Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs Payton Tolle (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BP

Brandon Pfaadt

ARI SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

100%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

86%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

76%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against BOS
PT

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

15%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 75% to reach 5+ against ARI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.765K%21.4%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs RHP (team)OPS.686K%20.0%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ARI 0·BOS 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
ARI 0·BOS 2
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%BOS
ARI 0 · BOS 14 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-18BOS 9-4
2026-08-17BOS 11-1 · Blowout
2025-09-07BOS 7-4
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

ARI OFFENSE

.325L15 team wOBA
+9 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

BOS OFFENSE

.357L15 team wOBA
+41 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
ENVIRONMENT83° · 8mph out to RF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
83°F
Wind8 mph out to RF
Humidity40%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RED SOX 60%

Mean score sim 4.04.8 · projected total 8.8 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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