MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Eugenio Suárez · Over 0.5 1+ HR
engine edge vs Kalshi batter home runs
Jordan Walker · Over 0.5 1+ HR
engine edge vs Kalshi batter home runs
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
STL @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
STL to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
67%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
69%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
32%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
60%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
53%
THE READ
STL projects to outscore CIN by 0.73 runs across 5,000 trials.
STL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
13%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
CIN SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
60%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
League’s hottest HR park.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.