MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS
SD2 · spread
SD side — model edge vs the line
NYM2 · spread
NYM side — model edge vs the line
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
SD @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
SD to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
33%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
47%
THE READ
SD projects to outscore NYM by 0.28 runs across 5,000 trials.
SD SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
49%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
13%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
NYM SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
Deep OF, dead air.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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