MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Heriberto Hernández · Over 0.5 1+ HR
engine edge vs Kalshi batter home runs
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
MIA @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
68%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
57%
Game Total
Over 8.5
45%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
50%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
29%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore MIA by 1.58 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIA SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
42%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
PHI SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
89%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
39%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
54%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
HR-friendly.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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