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DETROITDET
61-64 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
@TUE 6:40 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
61-66 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
80°F · 6mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Keider Montero
RHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+94
ERA
3.22
IP
128.2
K/9
6.0
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
0.99
L5 STARTS3.30 ERA · 13.8% K · 6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
22%
17%
15%
14%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSliderCurveballChangeup
Braxton Ashcraft
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
3.82
IP
141.1
K/9
9.9
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS5.14 ERA · 23.9% K · 5.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
26%
23%
15%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerSplit-Finger
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

PIT2 · spread

Ashcraft's ace-tier arsenal vs softer counterpart

— Kalshi9% book31% +22pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

DET PIT

Game Markets

DET @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

40%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore DET by 0.55 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: DET 4.07, PIT 4.62
  • Keider Montero (DET) vs Braxton Ashcraft (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KM

Keider Montero

DET SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

62%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against PIT
BA

Braxton Ashcraft

PIT SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

33%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 57% to reach 5+ against DET

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KEIDER MONTERO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.7%OPS-against.583
vs Left-handedK%14.3%OPS-against.616
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.765K%23.6%

BRAXTON ASHCRAFT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.5%OPS-against.600
vs Left-handedK%29.6%OPS-against.740
DET vs RHP (team)OPS.741K%22.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs KEIDER MONTERO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs BRAXTON ASHCRAFT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
DET 1·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
DET 1·PIT 3
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%DET
DET 62 · PIT 56 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-17DET 8-5
2026-03-18PIT 3-1
2026-03-13PIT 7-5
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.333L15 team wOBA
+17 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

PIT OFFENSE

.283L15 team wOBA
-33 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT80° · 6mph out to RF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind6 mph out to RF
Humidity46%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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