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CWS vs CHC

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CWS @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCWS
0·0
CHICAGOCHC
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CWS DUGOUTCHC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Sam Antonacci (L) vs HP

FB93.4
FB95
SL85.5
CT88

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Sam Antonacci in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SAM ANTONACCI

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

61%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSam Antonacci at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 88 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Chicago WS vs Chicago C Winner?

52%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC
LINEUP EDGECHC

CWS STARTER

Bryan Hudson

AVERAGE
5.3
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 67% · 24% whiffSweeper · 26% · 24% whiff

CHC STARTER

Kevin Gausman

GOOD
6.0
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 51% · 16% whiffSplit-Finger · 39% · 40% whiff

Kevin Gausman grades good (Pitching+ 105) vs Bryan Hudson grades avg (Pitching+ 98)

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 71% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 64% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 63% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 62% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Braden Montgomery (S)hit 61% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Colson Montgomery (L)hit 55% · HR 19%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Chase Meidroth (R)hit 61% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Tristan Peters (L)hit 61% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Drew Romo (S)hit 47% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 75% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    39%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    60%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 74% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alex Bregman (R)hit 67% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Michael Busch (L)hit 67% · HR 13%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nico Hoerner (R)hit 72% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 66% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ian Happ (S)hit 60% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Miguel Amaya (R)hit 60% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Michael Conforto (L)hit 60% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CWS CHC

Game Markets

CWS @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

60%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

44%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

57%

THE READ

CHC projects to outscore CWS by 0.90 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CWS 4.61, CHC 5.51
  • Bryan Hudson (CWS) vs Kevin Gausman (CHC)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
BH

Bryan Hudson

CWS SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

72%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

81%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

70%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against CHC
KG

Kevin Gausman

CHC SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

15%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
  • 72% to reach 5+ against CWS
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bryan Hudson
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bryan Hudson
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bryan Hudson
SA

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Bryan Hudson
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bryan Hudson
IH

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bryan Hudson
PR

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Bryan Hudson
AB

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
MC

Michael Conforto

CHC · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Bryan Hudson
TP

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
MA

Miguel Amaya

CHC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Bryan Hudson
DR

Drew Romo

CWS · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 14%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.