BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATH
49-76 · +4 AL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 7:40 PM ETKC HOME PARK
52-74 · +5 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 4-6 L10
KANSAS CITYKC
Weather
88°F · 10mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Andy Fletcher K+0.6%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Brady Basso
LHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
4.35
IP
20.2
K/9
7.8
BB/9
1.3
WHIP
1.40
L5 STARTS1.45 ERA · 16.7% K · 0% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
41%
Cutter
Daniel Lynch IV
LHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.88
IP
50.0
K/9
7.2
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.02
L5 STARTS9.82 ERA · 19.4% K · 6.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
24%
24%
17%
SinkerSliderChangeup4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETATH 52%

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

ATH KC

Game Markets

ATH @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATH to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

KC -1.5

31%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

ATH projects to outscore KC by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATH 4.57, KC 4.12
  • Brady Basso (ATH) vs Daniel Lynch IV (KC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BB

Brady Basso

ATH SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

90%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

68%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against KC
DI

Daniel Lynch IV

KC SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

95%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

82%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

70%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against ATH
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Basso
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Basso
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Brady Basso
MG

Maikel Garcia

KC · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 32% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Basso
VP

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5
  • Facing Brady Basso
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Basso
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Brady Basso
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Basso
KI

Kyle Isbel

KC · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Basso
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRADY BASSO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%14.3%OPS-against.942
vs Left-handedK%28.6%OPS-against.669
KC vs LHP (team)OPS.694K%21.8%

DANIEL LYNCH IV SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.6%OPS-against.743
vs Left-handedK%19.8%OPS-against.419
ATH vs LHP (team)OPS.719K%24.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs BRADY BASSO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs DANIEL LYNCH IV

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 0·KC 1
4-game set · gm 2 of 4
2026 SEASON
ATH 3·KC 3
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
89%KC
ATH 8 · KC 67 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-17KC 9-5
2026-04-30ATH 6-3
2026-04-30ATH 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

KC OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT88° · 10mph out to LF
KAUFFMAN STADIUM
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind10 mph out to LF
Humidity45%
Rain1%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
FLETCHER
Called K rate+0.6% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr307

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ATH 52%

Mean score sim 4.6–4.1 · projected total 8.7 runs · partial lineups — will refresh

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