BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
63-61 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 7-3 L10
@MON 1:40 PM ETCIN HOME PARK
59-64 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 4-6 L10
CINCINNATICIN
Weather
80°F · 7mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Vic Carapazza K-0.5%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
5-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Quinn Mathews
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.60
IP
5.0
K/9
5.4
BB/9
5.4
WHIP
1.80
L5 STARTS3.60 ERA · 12.5% K · 12.5% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Kent Emanuel
LHP · CINPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
—
IP
—
K/9
—
BB/9
—
WHIP
—
L5 STARTS—
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

Under 4.5 (F5) · f5_total

under edge from the run-rate model in F5

— Kalshi44% book58% +14pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 51%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

STL CIN

Game Markets

STL @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

63%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

64%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

33%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

55%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore CIN by 0.35 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 5.38, CIN 5.03
  • Andre Pallante (STL) vs Rhett Lowder (CIN)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
AP

Andre Pallante

STL SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

74%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

61%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against CIN
RL

Rhett Lowder

CIN SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against STL
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Andre Pallante
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Andre Pallante
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andre Pallante
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Andre Pallante
EP

Everson Pereira

STL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
JB

Joshua Báez

STL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
MT

Michael Toglia

CIN · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Andre Pallante
BJ

Blaze Jordan

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
DM

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andre Pallante
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
PP

Pedro Pagés

STL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
NM

Noelvi Marte

CIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 68%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andre Pallante
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andre Pallante
KH

Ke'Bryan Hayes

CIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andre Pallante
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

QUINN MATHEWS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%9.5%OPS-against.734
vs Left-handedK%33.3%OPS-against.666
CIN vs LHP (team)OPS.740K%24.8%

KENT EMANUEL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

STL vs LHP (team)OPS.704K%18.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CIN BATTERS vs QUINN MATHEWS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs KENT EMANUEL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 0·CIN 0
5-game set · gm 1 of 5
2026 SEASON
STL 5·CIN 5
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%STL
STL 161 · CIN 124 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-26CIN 5-3
2026-07-25STL 7-0 · Blowout
2026-07-25CIN 4-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

CIN OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT80° · 7mph out to RF
GREAT AMERICAN BALL PARK
118HR
HR factor1.18 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

League’s hottest HR park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind7 mph out to RF
Humidity78%
Rain20%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
CARAPAZZA
Called K rate-0.5% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr334

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

CARDINALS 51%

Mean score sim 5.4–5.0 · projected total 10.4 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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