BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
67-58 · +2 NL WEST · W1 · 8-2 L10
@MON 7:10 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
56-69 · +5 NL EAST · W3 · 7-3 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
80°F · 4mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Walker Buehler
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
4.88
IP
114.1
K/9
7.9
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.43
L5 STARTS3.32 ERA · 17.4% K · 11% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
23%
21%
17%
11%
11%
9%
Cutter4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballSliderChangeupSweeper
Nolan McLean
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
3.42
IP
136.2
K/9
10.5
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.13
L5 STARTS3.09 ERA · 28.3% K · 9.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
19%
17%
13%
10%
Sinker4-Seam FastballSweeperCurveballCutterChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Walker Buehler · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts

— Kalshi80% book8% +12pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD NYM

Game Markets

SD @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

38%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore SD by 0.34 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 4.15, NYM 4.48
  • Walker Buehler (SD) vs Nolan McLean (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
WB

Walker Buehler

SD SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

26%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against NYM
NM

Nolan McLean

NYM SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 75% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

WALKER BUEHLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.738
vs Left-handedK%21.0%OPS-against.766
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.696K%22.5%

NOLAN MCLEAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.7%OPS-against.530
vs Left-handedK%26.9%OPS-against.712
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs WALKER BUEHLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs NOLAN MCLEAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 0·NYM 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
SD 1·NYM 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%NYM
SD 50 · NYM 54 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-07NYM 7-3
2026-06-07SD 3-2 · One-run game
2026-06-06NYM 5-0
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.328L15 team wOBA
+12 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

NYM OFFENSE

.323L15 team wOBA
+7 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT80° · 4mph out to RF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind4 mph out to RF
Humidity76%
Rain11%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO