BETFLYAISIGN IN
MIAMIMIA
64-61 · +3 NL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
@MON 6:40 PM ETPHI HOME PARK
67-58 · +2 NL EAST · W3 · 6-4 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
89°F · 6mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Janson Junk
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
4.41
IP
87.2
K/9
6.6
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS4.05 ERA · 16.5% K · 7.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
24%
20%
14%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSweeperCurveballSinker
Cristopher Sánchez
LHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+118
ERA
2.54
IP
155.2
K/9
10.5
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS2.24 ERA · 30.6% K · 8.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
39%
19%
SinkerChangeupSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 69%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA PHI

Game Markets

MIA @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

69%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

60%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

51%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

27%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore MIA by 1.73 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 3.26, PHI 4.99
  • Janson Junk (MIA) vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JJ

Janson Junk

MIA SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

57%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against PHI
CS

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

91%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

81%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

50%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

89%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.5 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JANSON JUNK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%15.9%OPS-against.628
vs Left-handedK%17.9%OPS-against.813
PHI vs LHP (team)OPS.693K%23.5%

CRISTOPHER SÁNCHEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.9%OPS-against.762
vs Left-handedK%37.9%OPS-against.317
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.739K%21.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs JANSON JUNK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs CRISTOPHER SÁNCHEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 0·PHI 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIA 6·PHI 6
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%PHI
MIA 119 · PHI 171 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-29MIA 8-6
2026-07-28MIA 1-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-07-27MIA 8-7 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-17 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

PHI OFFENSE

.342L15 team wOBA
+26 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT89° · 6mph out to RF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
89°F
Wind6 mph out to RF
Humidity57%
Rain14%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO