CHICAGOCWS
65-58 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W3 · 6-4 L10
@MON 8:05 PM ETCHC HOME PARK
72-53 · +2 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 6-4 L10
CHICAGOCHC
Weather
72°F · 3mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Luis Castillo
RHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
4.96
IP
110.2
K/9
8.2
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS5.46 ERA · 20.2% K · 6.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
28%
16%
12%
4-Seam FastballSliderSinkerChangeup
Shota Imanaga
LHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+93
ERA
3.74
IP
137.1
K/9
8.5
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS2.22 ERA · 21.6% K · 1.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
33%
14%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSweeperSinker
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCubs 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CWS CHC

Game Markets

CWS @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

38%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

CHC projects to outscore CWS by 0.31 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CWS 4.63, CHC 4.95
  • Luis Castillo (CWS) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LC

Luis Castillo

CWS SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against CHC
SI

Shota Imanaga

CHC SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 68% to reach 5+ against CWS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

LUIS CASTILLO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.637
vs Left-handedK%16.1%OPS-against.890
CHC vs LHP (team)OPS.800K%21.9%

SHOTA IMANAGA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.9%OPS-against.715
vs Left-handedK%27.4%OPS-against.718
CWS vs RHP (team)OPS.729K%23.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

CHC BATTERS vs LUIS CASTILLO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CWS BATTERS vs SHOTA IMANAGA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CWS 0·CHC 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CWS 5·CHC 1
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%CHC
CWS 61 · CHC 67 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-17CWS 9-8 · Slugfest
2026-05-16CWS 8-3
2026-05-15CHC 10-5 · Slugfest
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

CWS OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

CHC OFFENSE

.327L15 team wOBA
+11 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT72° · 3mph out to LF
WRIGLEY FIELD
95HR
HR factor0.95 · below avg
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Wind-dependent — check gametime.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
72°F
Wind3 mph out to LF
Humidity80%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO