BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
61-63 · +4 AL EAST · W3 · 5-5 L10
@MON 6:05 PM ETTB HOME PARK
74-49 · +1 AL EAST · L3 · 7-3 L10
TAMPA BAYTB
Weather
90°F · 10mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 3-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Brandon Young
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.33
IP
113.2
K/9
7.4
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS3.17 ERA · 21% K · 8.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
41%
20%
14%
13%
12%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerCurveball
Shane McClanahan
LHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
3.09
IP
99.0
K/9
8.3
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS2.51 ERA · 18.6% K · 7.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
29%
20%
14%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSliderCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL TB

Game Markets

BAL @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

TB -1.5

36%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.84 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BAL 3.82, TB 4.02
  • Brandon Young (BAL) vs Shane McClanahan (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BY

Brandon Young

BAL SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against TB
SM

Shane McClanahan

TB SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRANDON YOUNG SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.1%OPS-against.736
vs Left-handedK%15.6%OPS-against.668
TB vs LHP (team)OPS.685K%18.5%

SHANE MCCLANAHAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.623
vs Left-handedK%22.0%OPS-against.481
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.716K%23.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TB BATTERS vs BRANDON YOUNG

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs SHANE MCCLANAHAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 3·TB 0
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
BAL 8·TB 3
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%TB
BAL 169 · TB 180 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-16BAL 10-2 · Blowout
2026-08-15BAL 4-3 · One-run game
2026-08-14BAL 6-5 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL43¢ · 43%
TB59¢ · 59%
Total 7.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
TB +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

TB OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT90° · 10mph out to RF
STEINBRENNER FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Interim park post-Tropicana damage.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
90°F
Wind10 mph out to RF
Humidity62%
Rain4%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO