BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATLANTAATL
74-50 · +1 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@MON 7:40 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
60-65 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L3 · 4-6 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
84°F · 10mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Martín Pérez
LHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+87
ERA
2.96
IP
106.1
K/9
6.8
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS1.08 ERA · 18.6% K · 11.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
30%
23%
8%
SinkerChangeupCutterCurveball4-Seam Fastball
Bailey Ober
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+93
ERA
4.64
IP
99.0
K/9
6.1
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.23
L5 STARTS5.31 ERA · 13.9% K · 5.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
32%
16%
10%
Changeup4-Seam FastballSliderSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL MIN

Game Markets

ATL @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

33%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore MIN by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 4.91, MIN 4.62
  • Martín Pérez (ATL) vs Bailey Ober (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MP

Martín Pérez

ATL SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

45%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against MIN
BO

Bailey Ober

MIN SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MARTÍN PÉREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.9%OPS-against.623
vs Left-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.676
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.740K%21.1%

BAILEY OBER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.5%OPS-against.723
vs Left-handedK%12.0%OPS-against.764
ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.717K%20.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs MARTÍN PÉREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs BAILEY OBER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·MIN 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATL 2·MIN 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
70%ATL
ATL 40 · MIN 17 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-22MIN 7-3
2026-03-09ATL 9-8 · Slugfest
2026-03-06ATL 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

MIN OFFENSE

.319L15 team wOBA
+3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT84° · 10mph out to CF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
84°F
Wind10 mph out to CF
Humidity31%
Rain2%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO