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ATH
49-75 · +4 AL WEST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@MON 7:40 PM ETKC HOME PARK
51-74 · +5 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 3-7 L10
KANSAS CITYKC
Weather
91°F · 3mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Mason Barnett
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
6.16
IP
38.0
K/9
8.5
BB/9
4.7
WHIP
1.45
L5 STARTS9.42 ERA · 17.9% K · 10.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
25%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeper
Michael Wacha
RHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.46
IP
150.2
K/9
7.0
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS2.37 ERA · 16.8% K · 5.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
23%
16%
15%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutterSinkerCurveballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRoyals 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH KC

Game Markets

ATH @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATH to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

KC -1.5

36%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.51 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ATH 4.81, KC 4.70
  • Mason Barnett (ATH) vs Michael Wacha (KC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MB

Mason Barnett

ATH SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

28%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against KC
MW

Michael Wacha

KC SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

79%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MASON BARNETT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.3%OPS-against.829
vs Left-handedK%14.1%OPS-against.894
KC vs RHP (team)OPS.707K%21.0%

MICHAEL WACHA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.3%OPS-against.781
vs Left-handedK%20.4%OPS-against.635
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.721K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs MASON BARNETT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs MICHAEL WACHA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 0·KC 0
4-game set · gm 1 of 4
2026 SEASON
ATH 3·KC 2
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
89%KC
ATH 8 · KC 66 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-04-30ATH 6-3
2026-04-30ATH 5-2
2026-04-29KC 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

KC OFFENSE

.275L15 team wOBA
-41 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT91° · 3mph out to RF
KAUFFMAN STADIUM
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
91°F
Wind3 mph out to RF
Humidity32%
Rain1%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO