ARIZONAARI
@2026-08-17BOS HOME PARK
66-58 · +3 AL EAST · L1 · 3-7 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
74°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ARI BOS

Game Markets

ARI @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

41%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore ARI by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ARI 4.27, BOS 4.86
  • Mitch Bratt (ARI) vs Alec Gamboa (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MB

Mitch Bratt

ARI SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

59%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against BOS
AG

Alec Gamboa

BOS SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

0%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.1 strikeouts
  • 5% to reach 5+ against ARI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.763K%21.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs RHP (team)OPS.688K%19.9%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ARI 0·BOS 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
ARI 0·BOS 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%BOS
ARI 0 · BOS 12 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-09-07BOS 7-4
2025-09-07AZ 5-1
2025-09-06AZ 10-5 · Slugfest
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

ARI OFFENSE

.338L15 team wOBA
+22 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

BOS OFFENSE

.337L15 team wOBA
+21 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
ENVIRONMENT74° · 5mph out to LF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
74°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity77%
Rain2%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RED SOX 58%

Mean score sim 4.34.9 · projected total 9.1 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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