WASHINGTONWSH
60-65 · +4 NL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 1:40 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
55-69 · +5 NL EAST · W2 · 7-3 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
82°F · 11mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jake Irvin
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
5.79
IP
65.1
K/9
9.1
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS5.68 ERA · 22.8% K · 8.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
26%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSinkerCutterSweeper
Christian Scott
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
3.45
IP
78.1
K/9
11.3
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS4.23 ERA · 30.8% K · 6.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
50%
23%
17%
4-Seam FastballSweeperCutterSlider
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH NYM

Game Markets

WSH @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

40%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore WSH by 0.60 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.05, NYM 4.66
  • Jake Irvin (WSH) vs Christian Scott (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JI

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

15%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 29% to reach 5+ against NYM
CS

Christian Scott

NYM SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

35%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

JAKE IRVIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.787
vs Left-handedK%23.3%OPS-against.709
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.694K%22.5%

CHRISTIAN SCOTT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.6%OPS-against.687
vs Left-handedK%29.0%OPS-against.670
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.757K%20.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs JAKE IRVIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs CHRISTIAN SCOTT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·NYM 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 8·NYM 6
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%WSH
WSH 214 · NYM 176 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-15NYM 5-4 · One-run game
2026-08-14NYM 4-1
2026-05-21NYM 2-1 · Pitchers duel
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH45¢ · 45%
NYM57¢ · 57%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5 ·
NYM +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-9 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

NYM OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
ENVIRONMENT82° · 11mph out to LF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind11 mph out to LF
Humidity54%
Rain1%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO