MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Edward Cabrera · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
STL @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
STL to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
62%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
59%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
36%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
53%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
53%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 10.48 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
STL SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
66%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
98%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
85%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
75%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
CHC SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
66%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
22%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
46%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Wind-dependent — check gametime.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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