BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
66-58 · +3 NL WEST · L1 · 7-3 L10
@SUN 1:40 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
60-64 · +4 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 3-7 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
82°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Casey Mize
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.38
IP
96.0
K/9
8.6
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.09
L5 STARTS5.77 ERA · 18.7% K · 7.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
25%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerSlurve
Tanner Bibee
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
3.99
IP
144.1
K/9
7.1
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.13
L5 STARTS4.44 ERA · 20.9% K · 4.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
23%
22%
16%
10%
CutterSinker4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD CLE

Game Markets

SD @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

32%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore CLE by 0.26 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 4.44, CLE 4.18
  • Casey Mize (SD) vs Tanner Bibee (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against CLE
TB

Tanner Bibee

CLE SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CASEY MIZE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.708
vs Left-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.506
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.692K%21.4%

TANNER BIBEE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.9%OPS-against.656
vs Left-handedK%21.5%OPS-against.709
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.709K%21.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs CASEY MIZE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs TANNER BIBEE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 1·CLE 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SD 2·CLE 2
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%SD
SD 32 · CLE 25 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-15CLE 6-1
2026-08-14SD 7-5
2026-03-14SD 8-5
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD49¢ · 49%
CLE54¢ · 54%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5— · —
CLE +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.327L15 team wOBA
+11 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

CLE OFFENSE

.319L15 team wOBA
+3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 5mph out to RF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity78%
Rain24%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO