BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYY
68-55 · +2 AL EAST · L3 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 1:37 PM ETTOR HOME PARK
61-64 · +4 AL EAST · W2 · 7-3 L10
TORONTOTOR
Weather
73°F · 9mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Ryan Weathers
LHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.69
IP
126.2
K/9
9.7
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.21
L5 STARTS2.28 ERA · 22.4% K · 8.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
24%
20%
18%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeperSinkerSlider
Dylan Cease
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
2.40
IP
131.1
K/9
13.1
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS1.91 ERA · 33.6% K · 9.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
29%
11%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerCurveballSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY TOR

Game Markets

NYY @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

32%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

34%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

40%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

27%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

TOR projects to outscore NYY by 0.64 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 3.26, TOR 3.90
  • Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs Dylan Cease (TOR)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RW

Ryan Weathers

NYY SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

20%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

61%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
  • 83% to reach 5+ against TOR
DC

Dylan Cease

TOR SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

60%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

47%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

31%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

19%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.3 strikeouts
  • 95% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

RYAN WEATHERS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.693
vs Left-handedK%27.6%OPS-against.685
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.700K%19.0%

DYLAN CEASE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%35.8%OPS-against.514
vs Left-handedK%36.4%OPS-against.565
NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.722K%24.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TOR BATTERS vs RYAN WEATHERS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs DYLAN CEASE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 0·TOR 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYY 7·TOR 6
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%NYY
NYY 187 · TOR 171 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-15TOR 4-1
2026-08-14TOR 3-1
2026-06-14NYY 8-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYY65¢ · 65%
TOR38¢ · 38%
Total 7
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
NYY -1.5— · —
TOR +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.277L15 team wOBA
-39 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TOR OFFENSE

.279L15 team wOBA
-37 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT73° · 9mph out to LF
ROGERS CENTRE
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
73°F
Wind9 mph out to LF
Humidity70%
Rain1%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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