BETFLYAISIGN IN
MILWAUKEEMIL
76-48 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 4:10 PM ETLAD HOME PARK
74-50 · +1 NL WEST · L1 · 5-5 L10
LOS ANGELESLAD
Weather
85°F · 9mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 2-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Logan Henderson
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.88
IP
56.1
K/9
11.0
BB/9
1.8
WHIP
0.91
L5 STARTS2.64 ERA · 33.3% K · 3.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
31%
20%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutter
Tarik Skubal
LHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+118
ERA
2.93
IP
107.2
K/9
10.7
BB/9
1.5
WHIP
0.93
L5 STARTS2.59 ERA · 32% K · 5.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
25%
19%
15%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerSliderCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

LAD2 · spread

LAD side — model edge vs the line

— Kalshi57% book67% +10pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Logan Henderson · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts

— Kalshi28% book43% +15pp

Logan Henderson · Over 5.5 6+ Ks

engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts

— Kalshi45% book58% +13pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDodgers 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL LAD

Game Markets

MIL @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

24%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

25%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

33%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

25%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

26%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 6.27 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIL 3.07, LAD 3.20
  • Logan Henderson (MIL) vs Tarik Skubal (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

19%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
  • 83% to reach 5+ against LAD
TS

Tarik Skubal

LAD SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

38%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

51%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.8 strikeouts
  • 93% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LOGAN HENDERSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%32.4%OPS-against.630
vs Left-handedK%31.7%OPS-against.616
LAD vs LHP (team)OPS.746K%20.2%

TARIK SKUBAL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.5%OPS-against.554
vs Left-handedK%32.6%OPS-against.720
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.743K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

LAD BATTERS vs LOGAN HENDERSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIL BATTERS vs TARIK SKUBAL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIL 2·LAD 1
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
MIL 4·LAD 4
8 played · 11 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%LAD
MIL 71 · LAD 78 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-15MIL 4-1
2026-08-15LAD 3-1
2026-08-14MIL 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIL56¢ · 56%
LAD47¢ · 47%
Total 7.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
MIL -1.5— · —
LAD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIL OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

LAD OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT85° · 9mph out to CF
DODGER STADIUM
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

HR-friendly, low BABIP.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
85°F
Wind9 mph out to CF
Humidity45%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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