MIAMIMIA
63-61 · +3 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 1:40 PM ETCIN HOME PARK
59-63 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
CINCINNATICIN
Weather
82°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Eury Pérez
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+116
ERA
3.39
IP
116.2
K/9
9.9
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS2.32 ERA · 27% K · 8.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
15%
15%
10%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeperChangeupSinkerCurveball
Nick Lodolo
LHP · CINPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
4.86
IP
66.2
K/9
7.4
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.46
L5 STARTS2.63 ERA · 22.8% K · 9.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
26%
25%
24%
Sinker4-Seam FastballCurveballChangeup
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMarlins 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA CIN

Game Markets

MIA @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

63%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

29%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

59%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

MIA projects to outscore CIN by 1.01 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 5.69, CIN 4.68
  • Eury Pérez (MIA) vs Nick Lodolo (CIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
EP

Eury Pérez

MIA SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

27%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.1 strikeouts
  • 88% to reach 5+ against CIN
NL

Nick Lodolo

CIN SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

58%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

EURY PÉREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.0%OPS-against.734
vs Left-handedK%30.3%OPS-against.574
CIN vs LHP (team)OPS.740K%24.8%

NICK LODOLO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.6%OPS-against.834
vs Left-handedK%18.4%OPS-against.870
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.737K%21.1%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

CIN BATTERS vs EURY PÉREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs NICK LODOLO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 1·CIN 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIA 3·CIN 3
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%CIN
MIA 43 · CIN 60 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-15MIA 8-4
2026-08-14CIN 1-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-04-09MIA 8-1 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA51¢ · 51%
CIN51¢ · 51%
Total 9
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5 ·
CIN +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.59last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

CIN OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT82° · 5mph out to RF
GREAT AMERICAN BALL PARK
118HR
HR factor1.18 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

League’s hottest HR park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity75%
Rain23%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO