BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
66-57 · +3 AL EAST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 1:35 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
60-65 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
82°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Patrick Sandoval
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.30
IP
30.0
K/9
8.7
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.70
L5 STARTS3.57 ERA · 20.5% K · 10.3% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Lake Bachar
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.97
IP
65.2
K/9
9.3
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.08
L5 STARTS3.27 ERA · 22% K · 4.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
18%
13%
11%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeperCurveballSplit-Finger
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS PIT

Game Markets

BOS @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

34%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.31 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.17, PIT 4.14
  • Patrick Sandoval (BOS) vs Lake Bachar (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PS

Patrick Sandoval

BOS SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against PIT
LB

Lake Bachar

PIT SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

34%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PATRICK SANDOVAL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.0%OPS-against.663
vs Left-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.132
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.767K%23.5%

LAKE BACHAR SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.554
vs Left-handedK%25.9%OPS-against.703
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.765K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs PATRICK SANDOVAL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs LAKE BACHAR

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 1·PIT 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 2·PIT 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%PIT
BOS 35 · PIT 37 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-15BOS 4-0
2026-08-14PIT 8-4
2026-03-22BOS 6-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS53¢ · 53%
PIT50¢ · 50%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.346L15 team wOBA
+29 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

PIT OFFENSE

.284L15 team wOBA
-32 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 8mph out to CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity79%
Rain11%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO