BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
60-63 · +5 AL EAST · W2 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 12:15 PM ETTB HOME PARK
74-48 · +1 AL EAST · L2 · 8-2 L10
TAMPA BAYTB
Weather
89°F · 4mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Trevor Rogers
LHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
4.21
IP
119.2
K/9
7.7
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS3.40 ERA · 27.3% K · 2.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
23%
12%
11%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeperSinkerCutter
Freddy Peralta
RHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
5.33
IP
123.1
K/9
8.8
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.50
L5 STARTS8.44 ERA · 20.9% K · 10% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
53%
22%
15%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSliderSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL TB

Game Markets

BAL @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

TB -1.5

35%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

33%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.59 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BAL 3.74, TB 3.85
  • Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs Freddy Peralta (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TR

Trevor Rogers

BAL SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

76%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against TB
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

34%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TREVOR ROGERS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.2%OPS-against.768
vs Left-handedK%26.4%OPS-against.513
TB vs RHP (team)OPS.762K%18.9%

FREDDY PERALTA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.742
vs Left-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.811
BAL vs LHP (team)OPS.711K%25.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TB BATTERS vs TREVOR ROGERS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs FREDDY PERALTA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 2·TB 0
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
BAL 7·TB 3
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%TB
BAL 168 · TB 180 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-15BAL 4-3 · One-run game
2026-08-14BAL 6-5 · One-run game
2026-05-27BAL 11-2 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL43¢ · 43%
TB59¢ · 59%
Total 7.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
TB +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-10 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

TB OFFENSE

.331L15 team wOBA
+15 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT89° · 4mph out to CF
STEINBRENNER FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Interim park post-Tropicana damage.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
89°F
Wind4 mph out to CF
Humidity71%
Rain3%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO