ARIZONAARI
@2026-08-16ATL HOME PARK
73-50 · +1 NL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
95°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDiamondbacks 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ARI ATL

Game Markets

ARI @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ARI to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

30%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

ARI projects to outscore ATL by 0.69 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ARI 4.95, ATL 4.26
  • Michael Soroka (ARI) vs Bryce Elder (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MS

Michael Soroka

ARI SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

45%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against ATL
BE

Bryce Elder

ATL SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

59%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against ARI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.714K%20.8%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs RHP (team)OPS.688K%19.9%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ARI 0·ATL 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
ARI 0·ATL 2
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%ATL
ARI 0 · ATL 56 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-15AZ 10-3 · Blowout
2026-08-14AZ 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-04-05AZ 6-5 · One-run game
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ARI47¢ · 47%
ATL57¢ · 57%
Total 9
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
ARI -1.5 ·
ATL +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

ARI OFFENSE

.335L15 team wOBA
+19 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

ATL OFFENSE

.311L15 team wOBA
-5 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT95° · 6mph out to CF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
95°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity37%
Rain2%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

DIAMONDBACKS 54%

Mean score sim 4.94.3 · projected total 9.2 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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