BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
60-64 · +4 NL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 4:10 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
54-69 · +5 NL EAST · W1 · 7-3 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
83°F · 8mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Brad Lord
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.79
IP
61.2
K/9
8.2
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.18
L5 STARTS7.33 ERA · 21.3% K · 12.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
23%
21%
14%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSliderSweeperChangeup
Sean Manaea
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.13
IP
104.2
K/9
9.1
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS3.08 ERA · 25.6% K · 8.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
32%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperSinkerCutterChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH NYM

Game Markets

WSH @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

34%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.18 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.62, NYM 4.56
  • Brad Lord (WSH) vs Sean Manaea (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BL

Brad Lord

WSH SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against NYM
SM

Sean Manaea

NYM SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

88%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 71% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRAD LORD SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%20.3%OPS-against.510
vs Left-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.788
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.703K%22.9%

SEAN MANAEA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.0%OPS-against.803
vs Left-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.714
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.757K%20.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs BRAD LORD

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs SEAN MANAEA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·NYM 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 8·NYM 5
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%WSH
WSH 214 · NYM 175 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-14NYM 4-1
2026-05-21NYM 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-05-20WSH 8-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH45¢ · 45%
NYM59¢ · 59%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5— · —
NYM +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→7.5→7→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

NYM OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT83° · 8mph in from CF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
83°F
Wind8 mph in from CF
Humidity36%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO