BETFLYAISIGN IN
TEXASTEX
61-63 · +2 AL WEST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 9:40 PM ETATH HOME PARK
48-75 · +5 AL WEST · L1 · 3-7 L10
ATH
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Jacob Metz K-0.5%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
MacKenzie Gore
LHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
4.45
IP
139.2
K/9
9.9
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS3.18 ERA · 26.2% K · 7.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
21%
10%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballCurveballChangeupSliderCutterSinker
J.T. Ginn
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
3.53
IP
127.1
K/9
8.1
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.22
L5 STARTS5.11 ERA · 23% K · 8.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
19%
19%
16%
12%
SinkerChangeupCutterSlider4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETATH 52%

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

TEX ATH

Game Markets

TEX @ ATH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

ATH F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

ATH -1.5

36%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.24 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: TEX 4.65, ATH 4.59
  • Cody Bradford (TEX) vs Jacob Lopez (ATH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CB

Cody Bradford

TEX SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

50%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
  • 12% to reach 5+ against ATH
JL

Jacob Lopez

ATH SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against TEX
JP

Joc Pederson

TEX · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jacob Lopez
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Jacob Lopez
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Jacob Lopez
CS

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jacob Lopez
JB

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Lopez
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Jacob Lopez
NL

Nicky Lopez

TEX · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Lopez
AW

Austin Wynns

TEX · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Lopez
EC

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Lopez
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MACKENZIE GORE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.6%OPS-against.693
vs Left-handedK%20.4%OPS-against.741
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.718K%21.6%

J.T. GINN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.5%OPS-against.554
vs Left-handedK%19.3%OPS-against.723
TEX vs LHP (team)OPS.732K%24.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATH BATTERS vs MACKENZIE GORE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TEX BATTERS vs J.T. GINN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TEX 1·ATH 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
TEX 5·ATH 6
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
93%TEX
TEX 160 · ATH 12 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-16TEX 5-3
2026-08-15ATH 8-3
2026-04-26ATH 2-1 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

TEX OFFENSE

.276L15 team wOBA
-40 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

ATH OFFENSE

.284L15 team wOBA
-32 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT

Park factors unavailable.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
METZ
Called K rate-0.5% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr52

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ATH 52%

Mean score sim 4.7–4.6 · projected total 9.2 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

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