BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
66-57 · +2 NL WEST · W6 · 8-2 L10
@SAT 7:10 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
59-64 · +4 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 2-8 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
77°F · 4mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Adam Hamari K-0.7%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Wandy Peralta
LHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.39
IP
61.0
K/9
5.6
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.38
L5 STARTS4.43 ERA · 11.1% K · 0% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
34%
18%
10%
SinkerChangeupSlider4-Seam Fastball
Joey Cantillo
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
3.91
IP
119.2
K/9
9.9
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.48
L5 STARTS5.93 ERA · 29.3% K · 7.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
27%
25%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSliderCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Ty France · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

form + position drive the RBI projection

+186 DraftKings35% book60% +25pp

Luis Campusano · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

elite contact + lineup behind sees traffic

+264 DraftKings27% book49% +22pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 56%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SD CLE

Game Markets

SD @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

38%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore SD by 0.41 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 3.73, CLE 4.15
  • Wandy Peralta (SD) vs Joey Cantillo (CLE)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
WP

Wandy Peralta

SD SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

74%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against CLE
JC

Joey Cantillo

CLE SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against SD
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Wandy Peralta
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Wandy Peralta
CD

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Wandy Peralta
TF

Ty France

SD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Wandy Peralta
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
AH

Austin Hays

SD · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Wandy Peralta
LC

Luis Campusano

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
AG

Angel Genao

CLE · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Wandy Peralta
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Wandy Peralta
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
PH

Petey Halpin

CLE · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Wandy Peralta
PB

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Wandy Peralta
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
FF

Freddy Fermin

SD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

WANDY PERALTA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%11.2%OPS-against.790
vs Left-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.673
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.662K%22.5%

JOEY CANTILLO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%28.0%OPS-against.783
vs Left-handedK%16.8%OPS-against.722
SD vs LHP (team)OPS.687K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs WANDY PERALTA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs JOEY CANTILLO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 1·CLE 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
SD 2·CLE 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%SD
SD 32 · CLE 24 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-14SD 7-5
2026-03-14SD 8-5
2026-03-07CLE 7-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD49¢ · 49%
CLE54¢ · 54%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5— · —
CLE +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.334L15 team wOBA
+18 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

CLE OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT77° · 4mph in from CF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind4 mph in from CF
Humidity81%
Rain2%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
HAMARI
Called K rate-0.7% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr346

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

GUARDIANS 56%

Mean score sim 3.7–4.1 · projected total 7.9 runs · built on locked lineups

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