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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

PHI vs MIN

Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins

Saturday, August 15, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PHI @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PHILADELPHIAPHI
0·0
MINNESOTAMIN
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PHI DUGOUTMIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

CV77.4
SL86.4
SL85.4
CV77.1
FB94

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIN to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 78 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Philadelphia vs Minnesota Winner?

67%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI
LINEUP EDGEPHI

PHI STARTER

Andrew Painter

AVERAGE
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 33% · 12% whiffSlider · 20% · 38% whiffSweeper · 14% · 23% whiff

MIN STARTER

Dean Kremer

SHAKY
4.7
PROJECTED Ks
89
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Split-Finger · 28% · 38% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 16% whiffCutter · 16% · 35% whiff

Dean Kremer grades poor (Pitching+ 89) vs Andrew Painter grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 66% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 61% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 61% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 65% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Edmundo Sosa (R)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Bryson Stott (L)hit 58% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Derek Hill (R)hit 54% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Austin Martin (R)hit 54% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Byron Buxtonhit 57% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Ryan Jeffers (R)hit 56% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Royce Lewis (R)hit 52% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Josh Bell (S)hit 55% · HR 11%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luke Keaschall (R)hit 50% · HR 5%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brooks Lee (S)hit 43% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ryan Kreidler (R)hit 43% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Kaelen Culpepper (R)hit 43% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PHI MIN

Game Markets

PHI @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

34%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.12 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.64, MIN 4.48
  • Andrew Painter (PHI) vs Dean Kremer (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AP

Andrew Painter

PHI SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against MIN
DK

Dean Kremer

MIN SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 52% to reach 5+ against PHI
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Dean Kremer
DH

Derek Hill

PHI · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Dean Kremer
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Dean Kremer
BB

Byron Buxton

MIN · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Andrew Painter
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Dean Kremer
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Dean Kremer
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Dean Kremer
ES

Edmundo Sosa

PHI · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Painter
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Painter
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dean Kremer
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Andrew Painter
AM

Austin Martin

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Painter
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 58%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Painter
RK

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Painter
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Andrew Painter
KC

Kaelen Culpepper

MIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Painter

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.