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NEW YORKNYY
68-54 · +2 AL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 3:07 PM ETTOR HOME PARK
60-64 · +4 AL EAST · W1 · 7-3 L10
TORONTOTOR
Weather
76°F · 12mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Cam Schlittler
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+111
ERA
2.21
IP
146.2
K/9
11.2
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
0.93
L5 STARTS2.97 ERA · 40.9% K · 5.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
27%
20%
4-Seam FastballCutterSinkerCurveball
Braydon Fisher
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.54
IP
61.0
K/9
8.4
BB/9
4.9
WHIP
1.23
L5 STARTS0.00 ERA · 13.6% K · 22.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
50%
29%
17%
SliderCurveball4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Cam Schlittler · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

+122 FanDuel45% book66% +21pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 61%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY TOR

Game Markets

NYY @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

32%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

23%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

27%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore TOR by 1.33 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.63, TOR 3.30
  • Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs Braydon Fisher (TOR)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CS

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

39%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.8 strikeouts
  • 88% to reach 5+ against TOR
BF

Braydon Fisher

TOR SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

27%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

94%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.1 strikeouts
  • 86% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CAM SCHLITTLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.2%OPS-against.540
vs Left-handedK%34.6%OPS-against.591
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.701K%18.9%

BRAYDON FISHER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.6%OPS-against.567
vs Left-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.742
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.717K%24.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TOR BATTERS vs CAM SCHLITTLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs BRAYDON FISHER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 0·TOR 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYY 7·TOR 5
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%NYY
NYY 187 · TOR 170 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-14TOR 3-1
2026-06-14NYY 8-3
2026-06-13NYY 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYY64¢ · 64%
TOR41¢ · 41%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
NYY -1.5— · —
TOR +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.283L15 team wOBA
-33 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TOR OFFENSE

.280L15 team wOBA
-36 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT76° · 12mph out to LF
ROGERS CENTRE
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind12 mph out to LF
Humidity60%
Rain1%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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