BETFLYAISIGN IN
MILWAUKEEMIL
75-48 · +1 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 7:15 PM ETLAD HOME PARK
74-49 · +1 NL WEST · W1 · 5-5 L10
LOS ANGELESLAD
Weather
78°F · 11mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jacob Misiorowski
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+126
ERA
1.76
IP
133.0
K/9
13.8
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
0.74
L5 STARTS2.79 ERA · 45.3% K · 2.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
63%
14%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballCutterCurveballSlider
Justin Wrobleski
LHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.44
IP
120.1
K/9
7.0
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS5.82 ERA · 24.8% K · 7.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
50%
30%
4-Seam FastballSliderSinkerCurveballChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Justin Wrobleski · Under 4.5 <5 Pitcher Ks

K projection runs under in this matchup

+126 FanDuel44% book58% +13pp

Jacob Misiorowski · Over 8.5 9+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

-125 FanDuel56% book67% +11pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 67%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL LAD

Game Markets

MIL @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

67%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

23%

Game Total

Over 8.5

32%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

34%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

18%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

19%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore LAD by 1.77 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.45, LAD 2.68
  • Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs Justin Wrobleski (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JM

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

98%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

67%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

30%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.9 strikeouts
  • 98% to reach 5+ against LAD
JW

Justin Wrobleski

LAD SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JACOB MISIOROWSKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%32.7%OPS-against.543
vs Left-handedK%46.8%OPS-against.384
LAD vs LHP (team)OPS.749K%20.2%

JUSTIN WROBLESKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.6%OPS-against.647
vs Left-handedK%23.4%OPS-against.729
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.745K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

LAD BATTERS vs JACOB MISIOROWSKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIL BATTERS vs JUSTIN WROBLESKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIL 1·LAD 1
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
MIL 3·LAD 4
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%LAD
MIL 70 · LAD 78 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-15LAD 3-1
2026-08-14MIL 5-4 · One-run game
2026-05-24LAD 5-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIL57¢ · 57%
LAD46¢ · 46%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
MIL -1.5— · —
LAD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIL OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

LAD OFFENSE

.306L15 team wOBA
-10 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT78° · 11mph out to CF
DODGER STADIUM
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

HR-friendly, low BABIP.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
78°F
Wind11 mph out to CF
Humidity64%
Rain1%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO